Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the nation and caused turmoil, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the political, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in universities but scarcely any government figures or activists are willing to participate with even the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer endorses unification or the current situation. Each composes two pieces that aim for objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates range over identity markers, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated the writer. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate claim they support unification but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has possesses valuable insights to gain from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
