How Likely That Trump's Gaza Plan Will Work?

Hamas's limited endorsement of the US president's Gaza agreement last Friday has been welcomed internationally and is the nearest the two warring sides have got in two years toward stopping the fighting within the Gaza Strip.

How Near Is a Deal?

The Palestinian faction's partial acceptance of the Trump plan is the closest negotiators have got in recent months toward a full end of the conflict inside the Gaza Strip. However, they are still distant from an agreement.

Trump's 20-point initiative to stop the conflict specifies for the group free every captive within 72 hours, give up governing authority to a cross-border council headed by Donald Trump, and lay down its weapons. In return, Israel would slowly pull back its troops from Gaza and release more than one thousand detainees.

This agreement includes an increase of assistance into Gaza, parts of which are facing starvation, and recovery financing to the region, that has been nearly completely decimated.

The organization only agreed on three items: the release of all hostages, the handing over of authority and the pullout of Israeli troops from Gaza. Hamas declared the rest of the deal should be discussed alongside additional Palestinian factions, as it is a component of a joint national approach.

In practice, this implies Hamas wants further negotiations on the thornier parts of the US plan, particularly the request that it disarms, and a definite timeline regarding Israeli troop pullout.

When and Where Will Negotiations Occur?

Representatives have flown to the Egyptian capital to work out specifics to bridge the differences between the two sides.

Negotiations will start on Monday and it is anticipated to yield outcomes over the next several days, be they successful or not.

Trump posted a picture of a chart showing Gaza on Saturday night that showed the line up to which Israeli forces should withdraw stating that if Hamas agreed to the terms, that the ceasefire would start immediately. Donald Trump is keen to stop the war as it approaches to its two year mark and before the Nobel prize committee announces the recipient of the peace prize in October, an issue that is a widely known obsession of his.

Benjamin Netanyahu said a deal to bring Israeli hostages home should preferably take place over the next few days.

What Gaps Persist?

Both Hamas and Israel have been cautious their positions going into negotiations.

The group has consistently refused to lay down its arms in past negotiations. It has provided no indication whether its stance has shifted regarding this issue, even as it broadly accepts to the US proposal, with conditions. Trump and Israel have emphasized that there exists limited flexibility on the disarmament issue and are determined to bind Hamas with binding language in any agreement moving forward.

The militant faction additionally stated it agreed to handing over power in Gaza to an expert-led administration, as outlined by the Trump plan. But, in a statement, the militant group clarified it would accept a Gaza-based expert-led administration, rather than the global authority proposed by Trump in its plan.

The Israeli government has also sought to keep the matter of its troop withdrawal vague. Only a few hours after announcing the US proposal during a shared media briefing in Washington recently, Netanyahu published a video assuring Israelis that troops would stay in most of Gaza.

On Saturday night, Netanyahu again repeated that troops would stay in Gaza, saying that captives would be released while the Israel Defense Forces would remain within Gaza's interior.

Netanyahu’s position appears to conflict with the requirement in the US proposal that Israeli forces completely pull out from Gaza. Hamas will seek guarantees that Israel will fully withdraw and that should Hamas gives up its weapons, Israeli forces will not return to the strip.

Mediators must bridge these gaps, obtaining clear, strict language regarding giving up weapons from Hamas. They must also demonstrate to the faction that Israel will genuinely withdraw from Gaza and that there are international guarantees that will compel the Israeli state to comply to the terms of the agreement.

The differences might be resolved, and the United States will undoubtedly push the two sides to achieve an agreement. However, negotiations have got close to a deal previously abruptly failing multiple times in the past two years, leaving both parties wary of declaring victory before pen is on paper.

Charles Spears
Charles Spears

A passionate digital artist and content creator with a love for visual storytelling and innovative design techniques.