Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension triggered by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: optimistic declarations are issued from various governments. Considerable effort is allocated on restraining particular approaches. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from enemy soil, a capability afforded by timely intelligence. From observation points, defense planes that had been scrambled to intercept incoming aerial threats flew past – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: several firings deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably provided by partner states. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly becomes sober acceptance: maybe the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a automatic firearm engaged a aerial vehicle close by, part of a defensive team – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its destination.
With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: several casualties, devastation and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a reliance that regional partners are demonstrably unable to substitute in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The detailed framework from US administration generated strong feelings, discussion and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from Washington unfolds according to the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This trend will, no doubt, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration works based on a premise well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government assumes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to surrender the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from assuming that the current condition will not shift further in its benefit in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing lives and land but averting a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: political desires to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not move to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.
These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to kill the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.
