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New Yorkers will discover the identity of their new city leader this Tuesday, in a contest that will determine who runs and protects the nation's most populous metropolis at a moment when the former president has threatened to send armed forces to the urban center.

Against that backdrop, New York has experienced a mayoral election that has pitted two distinctly opposing Democratic figures against each other. The contest has turned into an acrimonious showdown, marked by alleged racism and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two leading candidates that could have major implications for how the party performs in next year's midterm elections.

The Progressive Challenger

On the left side is the democratic socialist, the 34-year-old progressive candidate whose meteoric rise and people-powered movement has brought global notice. Representing the old guard is Andrew Cuomo, the former New York governor now campaigning independently – and enjoying the backing of ultra-rich donors and corporations.

With days to go, it is Mamdani, the one-time underdog who defeated his opponent in the party primary who is firmly installed as the leading candidate. The candidate, who has campaigned on a agenda of economic justice and pledged to freeze rent for about 2 million city residents, has led his rival by double-digits across all surveys taken in the fall, and it is very much the progressive's race to lose.

The Controversial Campaign

Yet, Cuomo, who resigned as the state's leader in 2021 amid accusations of misconduct, has stated clearly he will fight to the end, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt fashion. He has criticized Mamdani's objectives as unrealistic, and in the final stretch chuckled along as a radio host made Islamophobic remarks about the candidate, who is a Muslim. Recently, Cuomo was widely condemned as bigoted after posting an artificial intelligence video that featured a slew of racial caricatures and showed his opponent freeing a group of criminals.

This represents a particularly ugly conclusion to an election that could be key to the path that the party, floundering in its reaction to Trump's power moves, takes in the coming years.

National Implications

If the progressive secures a clear victory, the party establishment who have declined to support his campaign will be forced to reckon with a message that has resonated with voters' frustration at economic disparity, inflation and the establishment. It would be hard for Chuck Schumer and the House leader not to embrace at least some of Mamdani's ambitious ideas about economic justice, given the newcomer has generated an excitement within the party perhaps not witnessed since the Vermont senator ran for president eight years ago.

Conversely, if Cuomo, who had been predicted to win easily in the Democratic primary, achieve a surprising comeback victory, it could cement national Democrats' existing approach of considered, uninspiring opposition – a strategy that has angered the party base. A NYC defeat of the progressive's optimistic platform could persuade party leaders that the wisest course is to stick to the political center – even as polls show the current iteration of the Democratic party is deeply unpopular nationwide.

Campaign Energy

Voters in the city seem to prefer the progressive agenda. Polls show that his backers are much more excited about their choice than his opponent's supporters, something that has been evident throughout the campaign. Mamdani's engaging content on social media, his optimistic vision for New York and his willingness to actually get out and connect with voters in the city has attracted an force of over fifty thousand volunteers, many of them young or new participants.

Personal Attacks

However, Cuomo, in his late sixties, continues to fight. And with the stakes stacked against him, the ex-leader has turned to ugly messaging in the final days.

After spending months launching various attacks at his opponent to see what might resonate, the independent has concentrated on attacking the candidate personally. He has called Mamdani, who was of Ugandan origin to South Asian heritage, an “extremist”, and appeared on Fox Business for an interview with Maria Bartiromo, where the candidate claimed New York “will not survive” his opponent as city leader. It hit bottom last week, when Cuomo laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said Mamdani would “cheer” another 9/11-style attack.

Political Landscape

This strategy mirrors much of what the former president, who has sent the military reserves to Washington DC and warned to do the same to NYC, has said about Mamdani, and perhaps that is expected. A group of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who donated to Trump in the last presidential race, have invested heavily into trying to elect Cuomo elected, as other influential figures have pressured Curtis Sliwa to withdraw from the race.

Political Histories

As far as the Cuomo camp, and his wealthy backers, are worried, it should never have come to this point. When Mamdani, one of one hundred fifty state legislators, started his mayoral bid in last year, few had known him, and in reality, barely anyone even paid attention.

The former governor, by comparison, entered smoothly into the race in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the big beast who seemingly held every edge. The quintessential political insider, he had wed a Kennedy and worked in a Democratic presidency. He became New York governor in 2011, 17 years after his parent, Mario Cuomo, left office from the same position.

The progressive, who was voted in to the New York state assembly in 2020, does not have the comparable background. But his commitment to providing no-cost transit and free childcare – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – present a more positive vision of the future than Cuomo’s pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his vow to increase police presence.

Recent Challenges

Nevertheless, the candidate has encountered some challenges in the final phase, after footage surfaced suggesting him implying the New York police department and the Israel Defense Forces were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the NYPD is on your neck, it’s been laced by the IDF,” Mamdani said in the recording, filmed at a DSA convention in 2023. Mamdani, a longtime critic of Israel who has said the country is engaging in atrocities in Gaza, indicated he was questioning joint training exercises between the NYPD and IDF.

Emotional Response

With the election nearing, the candidate seems to have gained sympathy and support, however, for his reaction to his opponent's increasing rhetoric.

Mamdani responded to Cuomo’s 9/11 remarks in an heartfelt recording. In it, Mamdani remembered how, when he first campaigned for state assembly, a family member advised to him that he did not have to tell people about his Muslim faith. It was a realization, he said, that many local Muslims had been taught “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the margins of our city. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where Muslims could embrace their full identities, and that if we were to step out from those shadows, then it is in those shadows that we must leave our beliefs.”

Addressing the actions of his opponents, who has alleged Mamd